Greg Lyle (The Hill Times):
After being pushed one way and pulled another, voters ended August very close to where they started at the beginning of the month with the horserace even tighter now than when the campaign began.
The Duffy trial motivated opposition supporters and dampened the Conservative opportunity to grow. The leaders’ debate helped the Greens, Liberals and Tories to some degree but didn’t actually hurt the NDP. Most Canadians feel we are at least probably in a recession, but those who are most engaged in the issue feel the Conservatives are best able to manage that recession.
While the horserace numbers are similar but closer, there were several major shifts in underlying numbers that put the Liberals in a better position now than a month ago. However, the NDP retain the largest pool of potential supporters.
See also: “NDP support slides for first time, race tightening in federal election: poll” (680 News)
See also: “Poll Tracker: Margin narrows again in 3-way race” (CBC News)
See also: “Abacus poll: Election race tightens as NDP support slips” (Maclean’s)
See also: “Race narrows as NDP support dips” (Abacus Data)