Amanda Connolly (iPolitics):
The NDP appears to be losing momentum in Ontario to the Conservatives and the Liberals but has gained support over both parties in British Columbia, according to the latest EKOS poll for iPolitics.
The EKOS regional breakdown of voter intentions suggests that the Conservatives are picking up the pace in battleground Ontario and are polling at 37 per cent there, followed by the Liberals at 33 and the NDP at 23 per cent. Last week’s numbers showed the NDP at 27 per cent support in Ontario, with the Liberals and Conservatives at 34 per cent and 32 per cent respectively.
The NDP still strongly out-polls the other parties in Quebec but its support there has dropped somewhat, from 42 to 39 per cent. At the same time, its support in B.C. has surged to 38 per cent, up from 31 per cent last week. Conservative support in B.C. fell by five points to 25 per cent, leaving the party tied for second place with the Liberals.
Last week’s polling suggested large gains for the Liberals in Manitoba at 45 per cent, far ahead of the Conservatives at 29 per cent and the NDP at 15 per cent — but that’s narrowed significantly over the past seven days, suggesting a three-way race with the main parties all within six percentage points of each other. Saskatchewan shows a slight weakening of Conservative support this week, although the usual caveats with sampling size apply to those two provinces.
The Atlantic region shows a strengthening of solid Liberal support, up four percentage points over last week and holding strong with a 16-point lead over their nearest competition, the NDP.
In Alberta, support for the Liberals and NDP dropped by three and two per cent respectively, with the Conservatives surging ahead to 56-per cent support — a nine-point increase over last week.
High school- and college-educated voters also indicated increasing support for the Conservatives, with support among high school-educated voters up three percentage points for Conservatives to 35 per cent, and support among college-educated voters up a full six percentage points to 37 per cent.