“NDP tied with Liberals for lead in Montreal as Tories and Bloc lag behind, new poll says” (The National Post)

Philip Authier (Postmedia News):

The New Democratic Party is hanging on to its 2011 vote share on the island of Montreal but is in a virtual tie with the Liberals, who have gained since the last federal election, a new poll shows.

The same poll says the two parties that have traditionally had problems making inroads in Montreal, the Bloc Québécois and Conservatives, are getting little traction in the city.

With the federal election campaign now a month old, the new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll — this one of Montrealers alone — suggests affection for the NDP has not waned in the years since the 2011 election.

Many Montreal poll respondents remember exactly how they voted the last time and say they’ll repeat their vote on Oct. 19.

Had voters gone to the polls last Sunday (Aug. 27), 33 per cent of voters on Montreal Island would have voted NDP compared with 31 per cent who said they would vote Liberal, the poll finds. The other parties are well behind. […]

The poll — conducted using a mix of land lines and cellphone numbers — does not cover the entire province or provide a breakdown of individual Montreal ridings such as Mount Royal where the Conservatives hope to make a gain. They are currently shut out of Montreal.

Provincial polls show the NDP leading massively in Quebec. There are 18 ridings up for grabs on the island. Ten are NDP now, seven are Liberal and one was Bloc although the MP who won the Ahuntsic-Cartierville riding in the last election, Maria Mourani, quit to sit as an independent and is running for the NDP this time.

But Mainstreet compared the way people plan to vote this time to the way they said they voted in 2011. The Liberals make the most gains, up 12 per cent compared to 2011. Both the Conservatives and Bloc are down compared to 2011. The NDP is only down two percentage points from the 2011 results.

There is other good news for the Liberals. Despite the Conservatives’ aggressive “he’s just not ready,” television attack ads, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has some traction here.

Fifty two per cent of those polled strongly or somewhat agree with the statement: Justin Trudeau is ready to be prime minister of Canada. Twenty nine per cent somewhat or strongly disagree with this statement. […]

With 1,333 respondents, the Mainstreet poll is considered accurate plus or minus 2.68 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The new poll comes as the NDP, Bloc and Conservatives step up their game in the province and points to close races between the Liberals and NDP in many Montreal ridings.

Full article here


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